SHTF: Bug in? Or Bug out?

[Racer88]

Thread drift warning... I have never understood the popularity of the "bug out" concept. I cannot think of a worse thing to do than to run out into public space during a SHTF scenario.

"When the SHTF, I'mma gonna leave the safest place I can be (my home) and make myself super-vulnerable by exposing myself and my family from ALL sides by being out in a public space with all manner of unknown predators having easy access to us. I'm going to do that while being limited to only the the amount of life-sustaining supplies that I can carry on my body. Destination... unknown or uncertain (and could be even more dangerous than the place I left.... if I even make it there."

Nope... if the SHTF, I'm bugging IN. They're going to have to come get me, and I would rather defend myself from my home (where life-sustaining supplies - including ammo - are not limited to what I can carry).

 

[Bongo Lewi]

I'm the opposite. I like my chances as a guerrilla in the wild vs. gorilla in a cage Outnumbered or outgunned, there's usually no retreat or escape from a bunker.

There is no threat so powerful that it can't be run away from. Live to fight another day.

 

[brian]

I think @Racer88 and @Bongo Lewi both have good points. I could see a city dweller as well as someone in a densely populated area having a bug-out plan which IMHO would have to include a destination with a stash of supplies like a home in the county with sparse population. The point would be to get away from people and maybe even having space to eventually grow some food, etc given how bad it all is. I wouldn't see myself wandering around randomly in a "Walking Dead" fashion. At the point supplies dwindled, you'd have to figure it out as well.

I do have a second home which could provide for some food sources but it is 750 miles away, so not a practical trip in a dire situation. And I don't have it stockpiled with guns and ammo. I happened to be there in March 2020 so my gears were spinning fast trying to figure out what I might need to do to make it home if things went super south. As such, I tend to subscribe more to @Racer88 perspective as I'd rather be in my primary home where I have my various "stockpiles". Not to mention some friends and family in the area which could also be helpful.

 

[Racer88]

The point would be to get away from people and maybe even having space to eventually grow some food, etc given how bad it all is.

Getting to a place where you are "away from people" is a VERY long distance from most populated locations. How are you going to get there? How are you going to FIGHT your way there? There will be MANY potential adversaries on the way. And then, assuming you get there... what next? Shelter? Sustenance?

Not to mention some friends and family in the area which could also be helpful.

Where I live, my neighbors would likely be good allies. Where I live (semi-rural), EVERYONE is armed. If the zombies come to our neighborhood, it will not go well for them.

I am absolutely better off bugging in than wandering off with whatever I can carry.

 

[clm2112]

Really, the Bug Out and Bug In points of view are the same. It comes down to looking at where you are and deciding if you are safe, and can you sustain that safe space for a period if time.

If you can answer yes to that, you Bug In. It is the lowest risk.

If you can't say yes to the safety and defensible quality of your location, Bug Out is the best option, despite the risks and logistics problems with being on the move in a hostile space.

I live in a rural area. Bug In is obviously the safe option for most scenarios short of complete devastation of the area. Water, food, shelter, and the means to defend it are already here, so not much reason to go elsewhere in search of it, taking on the added risks that being on the move create.

So, I don't see the Bug In and Bug Out as competing philosophies. One should be prepared to alternate between them as the conditions demand.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Urban or burbs, you are in trouble if things get really bad. I never bet on neighbors or their fighting ability. People not trained to fight as a unit most likely won't. Most people are not warriors and will choke and surrender rather than fight. Then there are the minority of reactionary fools who just start shooting and get themselves killed.

City dwellers better have a bug-out plan. Because even nice people turn into maniacs in a crisis. Mobs will form. The cavalry ain't coming. Retreat or escape is likely to be difficult. Actually, mobs have already formed.

Rural... depends on how rural I suppose. My nearest neighbor is half a mile. Very hilly, wooded terrain. As far as paved roads go, it's one way in one way out. Relatively easy to defend in that regard. There's high ground above the house on three sides. If I were dealing with a group of intruders, I would head uphill, pick them off one at a time and keep moving - flanking them. Like shooting hogs.

Thus, in keeping with the topic of the thread, in rural environments, a rifle and scope is an essential SHTF weapon. Thermal capability is a huge advantage. If you also have a can on that rifle, at night it's "I can see you but you can't see or hear me."

A former and almost lifelong city dweller, I'd stick with a pistol and PCC to fight my way out of town.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

The best rural defense is sometimes a good offense.

If you mention ghilli, the accountants and marketing managers who share your cul-de-sac or condo building think this is what you mean:

 

[clm2112]

Yeah, rural is a relative state... it is rural at the moment, but what would it become in a crisis.

Let me elaborate using a scenario on a natural disaster. Let's say a largish rock comes down from space and does a face plant east of the Allegheny Mountains. Harrisburg PA would be a nice place to paint the bulls-eye on... ahem, it would solve a lot of political issues in the commonwealth of pennsyltucky. Ok, everything on the east coast gets screwed up quickly. A lot of local blast damage, light damage to Philadelphia and Baltimore, and little damage west of the mountains. The electrical grid of the east coast is going to be down for months. The transmission system is all above ground and it will get flattened all at once.

The east coast cities are going to become difficult to inhabit. They all rely on power to deliver the basic need of water. So, when the water runs out, and it will run out, where are the people going to go... West, over the mountains, is probably the path chosen.

Now, rural suddenly becomes not so rural. The influx of horde of people, many of whom are practitioners of the socialist ideology, becomes the problem. I don't worry about my neighbors...they are mostly sane and reasonable, but what would this area look like if the population gets multiplied overnight.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Yeah, rural is a relative state... it is rural at the moment, but what would it become in a crisis.

Let me elaborate using a scenario on a natural disaster. Let's say a largish rock comes down from space and does a face plant east of the Allegheny Mountains. Harrisburg PA would be a nice place to paint the bulls-eye on... ahem, it would solve a lot of political issues in the commonwealth of pennsyltucky. Ok, everything on the east coast gets screwed up quickly. A lot of local blast damage, light damage to Philadelphia and Baltimore, and little damage west of the mountains. The electrical grid of the east coast is going to be down for months. The transmission system is all above ground and it will get flattened all at once.

The east coast cities are going to become difficult to inhabit. They all rely on power to deliver the basic need of water. So, when the water runs out, and it will run out, where are the people going to go... West, over the mountains, is probably the path chosen.

Now, rural suddenly becomes not so rural. The influx of horde of people, many of whom are practitioners of the socialist ideology, becomes the problem. I don't worry about my neighbors...they are mostly sane and reasonable, but what would this area look like if the population gets multiplied overnight.

I agree that's pretty much how a meteor strike or other devastating natural disaster would go. East or west coast. People pouring out of cities will go looking for things that are familiar. First the near burbs, then the further out burbs. Then small towns. There are a lot of those. Obscure, out-of-the-way homes are not without risk but are immeasurably easier to defend. Especially against clowns from a city who don't know the area and are not at home in the woods.

I also agree Harrisburg would be a good ground zero. But if a rock were big enough, it could solve a lot of problems if Philly and Baltimore were within the blast radius. ☠︎

 

[Racer88]

So, when the water runs out, and it will run out, where are the people going to go... West, over the mountains, is probably the path chosen.

Negative Ghost Rider. HOW are those people going to go "west over the mountains?" And I mean literally... HOW? By what means of transportation? Assuming they have a full tank of gas, at best they can go about 300 - 400 miles. Without electricity, they can't pump gas into their cars.... if there's even any gas LEFT. And that's also assuming no road blocks by "zombie" gangs who would like to disabuse you of your plans to move out and relieve you of your POV at gunpoint.

So, now what? On foot? The city dwellers ain't going NOWHERE... or at least not very far at all.

 

[clm2112]

Negative Ghost Rider. HOW are those people going to go "west over the mountains?" And I mean literally... HOW? By what means of transportation? Assuming they have a full tank of gas, at best they can go about 300 - 400 miles. Without electricity, they can't pump gas into their cars.... if there's even any gas LEFT. And that's also assuming no road blocks by "zombie" gangs who would like to disabuse you of your plans to move out and relieve you of your POV at gunpoint.

So, now what? On foot? The city dwellers ain't going NOWHERE... or at least not very far at all.

Dude, look at a map. It is not that far at all. You can walk it now a lot easier than when my ancestors did the hike. I've done half of the journey now on a bicycle. And the gubbernment will no doubt move the refugees by rail too. It is the action any politician takes when faced with a crisis...move the crisis someplace else. Those who don't do the interstates, will get dumped in boxcar loads by CSX and NS.

 

[Stephen G]

I think more people should have safe houses well stocked in a rural area
O boy bought himself 10 acres near my hunt property. Nice little house, generator, fuel, ATVs, super gocart thingys. Said its his "Get Away" if things go to crap in the New Jersey I think. What would be really cool if someone got the other little tract and put a Couple APCs out here where I live

 

[Bongo Lewi]

I used to tell my leftist friends I had guns, a Jeep, 20,000 rounds of ammo and 500 gallons of gasoline buried in Concrete, WA. They believed me

Philly refugees, New Yorkers and New Jerseyites could be in Allentown and the Poconos in under two hours. From NYC, Philly, metro areas shown here, this map shows how far you could potentially get on one tank of gas. Unless you are driving a Hummer. Philly to Pittsburgh... 300 miles.

 

[NavyVet83]

Depends on your situation. I.E. my situation is as follows... I live in a mobile home on 2 acres of land. The home itself isn't very secure realistically. I drive a highly modified Jeep Gladiator that is very capable off-road and does have a somewhat secure tonneau cover on the bed. The nearest tract/large area of uninhabited land is only about 15 miles from my location. My weapons, body armor, any survival and camping equipment, food, etc... Can all go in the bed of the truck, and I'm gone.

 

[Michele]

I think a combo of the two are doable for high/medium density populations. Stay put until the panic run is over. Use what stores you have (stocked up) and protect your home. Once the big run is over it’s time to bug out before resources run out & people start getting hungry and thirsty.

Have a pre planned bug out plan & place with: stored goods, off grid power supply (sun, water, wind), water supply and food source. If the area doesn’t supply food naturally I’d suggest stock rabbit and or chicken. Both reproduce quickly and are a great source of fat and protein. Both can thrive on the land without human interference.

Anyone in a mega city like NY, LA, Detroit…forget it. You’re screwed.

 

[clm2112]

I used to tell my leftist friends I had guns, a Jeep, 20,000 rounds of ammo and 500 gallons of gasoline buried in Concrete, WA. They believed me

Philly refugees, New Yorkers and New Jerseyites could be in Allentown and the Poconos in under two hours. From NYC, Philly, metro areas shown here, this map shows how far you could potentially get on one tank of gas. Unless you are driving a Hummer. Philly to Pittsburgh... 300 miles.

Yeah, Baltimore to my yard is less. And, regardless of how it happens...I used an asteroid strike as a bit of a farce... the journey isn't hard. There are enough ways to do it that do not involve using a car or truck. People do this for "fun" today. The C&O Canal/GAP trail has been so publicized amongst the yuppie class that I have no problems believing it wouldn't be used by those trying to escape Baltimore. There also the National Pike and the B&O mainlines through Fairmont WV or Connellsville PA. Anyone on foot could do it in a week or so. Faster on a bicycle...three days is normal. And I don't discount the ingenuity of the desperate, the situation on our southern border is testament to that.

So, like I said, rural is just a relative term. What seems safe today, might not be so safe in a crisis. I would plan to stay put. But should the situation become bad enough, I would consider abandoning the farm to escape down river. Or take to the sky if that looked viable. I can cover a lot of ground in a Cessna.

 

[Racer88]

There are enough ways to do it that do not involve using a car or truck. People do this for "fun" today. The C&O Canal/GAP trail has been so publicized amongst the yuppie class that I have no problems believing it wouldn't be used by those trying to escape Baltimore. There also the National Pike and the B&O mainlines through Fairmont WV or Connellsville PA.

You're leaving out what I consider to be a HUGE (and risk-laden) factor... all the OTHER people trying to do the same thing. And some of those people are not going to be "friendlies." Those using those "trails" ain't going to be alone. And if they have supplies (whatever meager amount they can carry on them)... they will be surrounded by people who don't have supplies... and WANT those supplies.

 

[clm2112]

You're leaving out what I consider to be a HUGE (and risk-laden) factor... all the OTHER people trying to do the same thing. And some of those people are not going to be "friendlies." Those using those "trails" ain't going to be alone. And if they have supplies (whatever meager amount they can carry on them)... they will be surrounded by people who don't have supplies... and WANT those supplies.

And if you stop yelling in all caps, you might realize I already factor that in. The ones who make it to my front yard are going to be the most dangerous and desperate. I'm not the one making the journey...I'm the one with the resources they are going to demand at the end of it. That might just make my decision to stay put untenable.

 

[Racer88]

And if you stop yelling in all caps, you might realize I already factor that in.

Where am I yelling in all caps? Individual words in all caps is another (efficient) way to emphasize that one word without having to use the mouse to highlight the word or phrase and then engage the editing menu to use the bold or italics feature (multiple clicks)... especially when typing quickly. Capitalizing a single word is very quick and I don't have to remove my hands from the keyboard.

I've been doing this social media thing since around 1992 (long before Algore invented the interwebz). So, over 30 years. The convention has been that an entire post in caps is "yelling." A single word or phrase in all caps is not and has never been "yelling." But an entire post or paragraph... yes.

I'm hardly "yelling." LOL! <--- is that "yelling while laughing???" Yaughing?

The ones who make it to my front yard are going to be the most dangerous and desperate. I'm not the one making the journey...I'm the one with the resources they are going to demand at the end of it.

Are they? Just my opinion... I feel more comfortable with bad guys in my yard while I'm in my house than bad guys surrounding me out in the open (away from my home or other building). That's just me.

That might just make my decision to stay put untenable.

Of course that's dependent on a lot of factors. If it's 100 people outside my home looking to break in... I might have a problem. If it's three guys... They have a problem. But back to the 100 bad guys.... they'd have to make it past a lot of other homes full of rednecks with guns to get to my house.

Either approach is a gamble, really. Just me personally... I'm more comfortable with the somewhat protected by four walls and an "ample" supply of ammo, food, water, shelter from the elements... than being exposed with a limited supply of... well... everything... and on my way to nowhere, exposed to the elements AND the "element."

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Yeah, Baltimore to my yard is less. And, regardless of how it happens...I used an asteroid strike as a bit of a farce... the journey isn't hard. There are enough ways to do it that do not involve using a car or truck. People do this for "fun" today. The C&O Canal/GAP trail has been so publicized amongst the yuppie class that I have no problems believing it wouldn't be used by those trying to escape Baltimore. There also the National Pike and the B&O mainlines through Fairmont WV or Connellsville PA. Anyone on foot could do it in a week or so. Faster on a bicycle...three days is normal.

So there I was. Hiking the Appalachian Trail. It's generally safe, but two-legged predators are more common than those with four paws. Two guys who looked the part but were too young for the casting call of Deliverance came by to say howdy. I calmly convinced them in my usual charming way that they should move on if they wanted to live. My words were different but that's the gist of the message they received. I decided to stay in a B&B that evening rather than camp just in case these mental defectives came back.

I've hiked most of the entire length now, but not all in one trip. This incident was near Mont Alto, which is due west of Gettysburg. It's the only time I encountered anybody looking for trouble on the AT.

Another time camping with my eldest brother in the Jersey Pine Barrens, some drunk Pineys hooting and hollering drove close to us and appeared to be looking for trouble. We got up and moved into the cover of the trees waiting for them to approach the camp. They got out of the truck and came close but turned around. Then they sped away. Not sure why. Maybe one of them was psychic. We had rifles and enough light from the fire and moonlight to make the shot if it were necessary. A wise man finding an abandoned camp with a fire burning should assume the campers are either afraid and hiding nearby - or have a gun pointed at their head.

The moral of the story is out in the country you can encounter bad guys. It's good to imagine all the "what ifs" and have a tactical plan for what to do.

Incidentally, trails in the east, many of which are repurposed railroad routes can get you just about anywhere north, south, east or west just about everywhere east of the Mississippi. Including across rivers. A fit person can walk 20 miles a day, provided there's food and water along the way.

I have a couple of small bug-out bags that are mainly guns and ammo. Good for the short term, grab and go. Another kit, which is considerably larger and heavier has medical supplies, a trauma kit, rations for a week, a water purification kit, sleeping gear, a small tent, rope, cutting tools, and a shovel multitool made for hiking and camping. I used to carry this kit when elk hunting in places we had to hike all day and then set up camp. It's similar in size to what this guy is carrying (below). In this situation, I'm going to have a lightweight bolt action rifle and a pistol in a chest rig. Most of the time my rifle choice was a 7mm Tikka. You have to eat your Wheaties and be in decent shape to lug all that gear any distance. Especially in difficult terrain.