Article Link! The Great American EV Fire Sale Is About to Begin

[Bongo Lewi]

Personally, I think self-driving cars should be outlawed and higher skill requirements be mandated for one to operate a motor vehicle. Perhaps even a tiered system like they have in the EU...

Time will tell which is least likely to reduce accidents, but I'd have more confidence in a self driving vehicle over the average human - who is distracted, texting, or under the influence. Or just a bad driver.

Theoretically, self driving urban taxis significant reduce traffic jams, emissions, and accidents. This is all new and being tested in a couple of different cities now.

Around 30,000 people get killed in gas burning cars and trucks every year in the USA. That's been going on for decades. More deaths than by guns. When people post the handful of EVs that have some sort of malfunction it's front page news for EV haters.

EVs need to kill a few hundred thousand people to catch up to gas burning counterparts in deaths. If I were a judge, I'd sentence convicted drunk drivers to buy a self driving car. We would all be safer. Drunks can drink themselves to death without harming anyone. Problem solved!

 

[Racer88]

If I were a judge, I'd sentence convicted drunk drivers to buy a self driving car. We would all be safer. Drunks can drink themselves to death without harming anyone. Problem solved!

You may be onto something there! I hold drunk (and other substance-impaired) drivers in the highest contempt. The drunk driver who killed my stepbrother was effectively not punished at all.

 

[It'sMe]

I love a bargain. My next car purchase is an EV.

In Norway, 89% of all new cars sold are EVs. It's cold there. They don't care who doesn't like batteries.

Or everyone is Norway is stupid. Which seems unlikely.

Norway has a lot of oil. Major producer. 60% of their exports. A 100 billion dollar business. Yet they are going "e".

Norway is also the worlds #1 producer of tall, leggy blondes.

We should be more like Norway.

The feul savings is not commonly realized, even when one keeps the vehicle longer than average.
There's also the argument that any feul savings, if any, is dwarfed by the inevitable battery pack replacement.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

The feul savings is not commonly realized, even when one keeps the vehicle longer than average.
There's also the argument that any feul savings, if any, is dwarfed by the inevitable battery pack replacement.

Battery pack replacement being a factor is interwebs bs spread by EV haters. The average is ten years now. Some go longer. EVs batteries today are under warranty for 8-10 years. The average life of all passenger vehicles in the US is 12 years. So replacing batteries may never be needed.

Some will say... "I drive my cars for 30 years." To them, I say, yea right, Pops. We will bury you in it. You and 1/10 of 1% of the population have a lot in common. Enjoy your 20+ year old beater that belches smoke. New gas burners today are not designed to last like the cars from when Mickey Mantle was on the mound. The guy that services my Jeep told me he worked at a Chevy dealer and replacing engines is not unusual at 120k miles. All modern cars are disposables now.

I've never kept a car longer than six years. I start disliking them after 3. Kind of like wives.

It's impossible to predict what the EV market or replacement batteries is going to be ten years from now. Nabobs will tell you that you are stuck with a useless car. I am quite certain some clever entrepreneurs will make money on restoring new life to used EVs at an affordable price a decade from now. I would invest in a business that took that on.

 

[NavyVette]

It's impossible to predict what the EV market or replacement batteries is going to be ten years from now. Nabobs will tell you that you are stuck with a useless car. I am quite certain some clever entrepreneurs will make money on restoring new life to used EVs at an affordable price a decade from now. I would invest in a business that took that on.

And yet Greta can tell us what the temperature is going to be in 10 years?

 

[Bobster]

Battery pack replacement being a factor is interwebs bs spread by EV haters. The average is ten years now. Some go longer. EVs batteries today are under warranty for 8-10 years. The average life of all passenger vehicles in the US is 12 years. So replacing batteries may never be needed.

It's impossible to predict what the EV market or replacement batteries is going to be ten years from now. Nabobs will tell you that you are stuck with a useless car. I am quite certain some clever entrepreneurs will make money on restoring new life to used EVs at an affordable price a decade from now. I would invest in a business that took that on.

I opined about this in another forum. One of the members went with his son to buy a 2yo Lightning F-150. His son had done his research and the truck he found was over 3 hours away at a dealer. They looked it over, the deal was made and with only an 80% charge (180mi) they WERE going to have to stop to charge on the way home. The dad drove his 2010? Escape home since they only offered $400 for it in trade.

Someone commented that a new battery was $35,000! Sure, if you buy one at the dealer. Ebay had one (used) for $8500. This leads me to what I had opinioned about and that is that there will be new or existing shops that take advantage of the "new" market out there rebuilding and replacing batteries. A lift and battery cradle will be needed. The Tesla "pack" shown weighs 1200lbs, consists of 16 "modules", each with 444 cells in it. The pics are self explanatory for the most part...

 

[Bongo Lewi]

@Bobster Agree with your comment and our mutual prophesy about used EVs. Most of the negativity about EVs flows from people who don't know WTF they are talking about. I get it that some people just don't want one, prefer gasoline fueled cars and that's fine. That's very different from just making shit up to support an uninformed opinion.

That F100E is Ford's nightmare. I was on the waiting list for one for two years then when my number came up and they pointed me to the dealer to place the order. It immediately became obvious to me this was not a good plan. The local Ford sales guy had no idea WTF he was talking about. It's a small dealer in a rural community so the likelihood of having a mechanic on staff who was an ace with EVs was zero. I expected there would be problems with the vehicle, it being a new design and vastly different technology. I was right.

My theory, which I admit is strictly opinion, is that Ford fucked up trying to make an F150 an EV. It's a great truck with an ICE. They should have started with a blank sheet of paper and told the engineers to design a functional, rugged electric work truck. Instead they were told to drop an F150 on top of some batteries and motors. They wanted it to look like the best selling pickup truck in the world inside and out and I believe that was a fuck up.

I have always liked the F150. New and old. A buddy of mine recently bought the hybrid F150. I drove it. What a piece of shit. This reminded me of my wise decision to not proceed with the F150E.

 

[Racer88]

I opined about this in another forum. One of the members went with his son to buy a 2yo Lightning F-150. His son had done his research and the truck he found was over 3 hours away at a dealer. They looked it over, the deal was made and with only an 80% charge (180mi) they WERE going to have to stop to charge on the way home. The dad drove his 2010? Escape home since they only offered $400 for it in trade.

Someone commented that a new battery was $35,000! Sure, if you buy one at the dealer. Ebay had one (used) for $8500. This leads me to what I had opinioned about and that is that there will be new or existing shops that take advantage of the "new" market out there rebuilding and replacing batteries. A lift and battery cradle will be needed. The Tesla "pack" shown weighs 1200lbs, consists of 16 "modules", each with 444 cells in it. The pics are self explanatory for the most part...

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So, these "high tech" EV batteries are just a big box of linked flashlight batteries???? Holy shit. Yep... that's the same battery in my flashlight.... 18650.

I thought this was a joke. Apparently not! These EV cars literally run on freakin' flashlight batteries?!?? It IS a fucking joke!


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k1tbf8muMc

 

[Bongo Lewi]

F150E Warranty:

There are no charging habits that void the warranty. The battery warranty is straightforward. 8 years / 100,000 miles. Degradation at the end of that period is expected to be 70% of capacity. So the truck doesnt stop running. If just wont go as far. Range and battery degradation are related. It doesnt stop running at 8 years/100k miles.

Incidentally... an iPhone degrades to 80% after 1000 charging cycles. For most people, that's probably 3 years.

I trade my phone in for a new one every two years.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

An internal combustion engine typically has between 200-300 parts that need to be maintained and replaced if they wear out. The number varies on the design and make of the engine.

An EV has 1/3 the number of parts of a typical ICE passenger car

 

[Bongo Lewi]

View attachment 34272
So, these "high tech" EV batteries are just a big box of linked flashlight batteries???? Holy shit. Yep... that's the same battery in my flashlight.... 18650.

View attachment 34273

I thought this was a joke. Apparently not! These EV cars literally run on freakin' flashlight batteries?!?? It IS a fucking joke!


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k1tbf8muMc

Silly. It's like counting how many nails there are in a house. It's irrelevant. Leave it to Elaine to find something to complain about.

It's cheaper to bundle cells like this into packs than to manufacture custom made battery cells. The manufacturing process for those types of batteries is well established and more efficient. It also makes them easier to recycle.

it also reduces single point of failure. If one of many fails, it's not a big deal.

The questions is... what difference does it make? None. Electrons are electrons.

In 1794, Robert Street patented an internal-combustion engine which was the first to use liquid fuel. So ... ICE is 18th century technology.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

And yet Greta can tell us what the temperature is going to be in 10 years?

I know what temperature Greta will be. HOT! HOT! HOT!

 

[Racer88]

I know what temperature Greta will be. HOT! HOT! HOT!
View attachment 34274

I looked up "smoldering" in the dictionary, and there she was!

 

[Racer88]

It's cheaper to bundle cells like this into packs than to manufacture custom made battery cells. The manufacturing process for those types of batteries is well established and more efficient. It also makes them easier to recycle.

Of course it's cheaper! But the narrative is that these batteries are "new and high tech" and "getting better." In fact, they are the EXACT same battery that is in the flashlight I use to take the dog out at night. There's nothing new or special about that battery.

It's hilarious because the SNL spoof ad... turns out.... not a spoof!

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Of course it's cheaper! But the narrative is that these batteries are "new and high tech" and "getting better." In fact, they are the EXACT same battery that is in the flashlight I use to take the dog out at night. There's nothing new or special about that battery.

It's hilarious because the SNL spoof ad... turns out.... not a spoof!

The spoof is kind of like a figures lie and liars figure kind of thing. The technology in a pricey rechargeable flashlight batteries is the current state of the art. Lithium ion batteries are lithium ion batteries. What difference does it make what shape it is?

They really arent AA flashlight batteries in an EV but the packaging of the individual battery cells do somewhat look like them. From a design perspective, an array individual cells makes more sense. Some of the biggest brain electrical engineers and scientists on the planet made these design decisions. What SNL thinks matters not. Comedians and actors usually flunked science and believe cars can be powered by rubber bands - if we all just close our eyes and wish really hard for that to come true.



Cut open your car battery and you'll find cells each with several individual plates.

 

[Bobster]

Theoretically, self driving urban taxis significant reduce traffic jams, emissions, and accidents. This is all new and being tested in a couple of different cities now.

It is my belief as a conspiracist that this is the ultimate goal of Big Brother and his desire to track your every move. The dregs will huddle aboard an electric bus with entry gained and tracked via implanted RF chip. The elites will gain entry into their self-driving pod in the same fashion... This control scenario is far easier to implement with an EV.

But the narrative is that these batteries are "new and high tech" and "getting better."

I think for EV "technology" to become popular, there needs to be a way to service them. If they are a common, "easy" to obtain (and replace) cell, servicing will be simpler--KISS applies.

The most successful power tool batteries are the ones that fit many tools both new and old. I am using still available 10yo LIon 18v batteries in 20+yo tools. But a brand-new "brushless" will take the same 10yo battery. And if you open a battery, there are a number of cells linked together not unlike an EV module.

Monster Garage had an episode from 2006 where they put a shitload of Milwaukee tool batteries in a car/truck (I forget which). The only video of the episode I could find was the interview of the Milky engineer, who was one of the build team, predicting EVs would not catch on "in his lifetime" and he looked to be in his late 20s/early 30s.

So it would make sense that an EV use a commonly available cell that could be installed in a module that can be replaced as a unit individually from the pack. A technician can go and check each cell (yes, 100s of them ), replace the "bad" cells, and have a "rebuilt" module for a fraction of the price of a new one.

BUT, if the packs or modules are damaged through accident or extreme off-roading, and directly short out, then there will be fire not unlike an ICE vehicle. EVs are generally more difficult to put out and require specialized training to do so. If the Fire/Rescue does not have that training, they will often sit back and watch them burn... (see .pdf below)

Cut open your car battery and you'll find cells each with several individual plates.

12v lead-acid batteries consist of six 2.1v cells. A fully-charged battery will show 12.6v on the meter. Why they just didn't round up and call it a "13v" battery still baffles me... (jk--they were obviously superstitious... )

 

[no4mk1t]

So it would make sense that an EV use a commonly available cell that could be installed in a module that can be replaced as a unit individually from the pack. A technician can go and check each cell (yes, 100s of them ), replace the "bad" cells, and have a "rebuilt" module for a fraction of the price of a new one.

Most people's opinion are just that. These peeps that have an opinion do not own an EV. So if you want the straight scoop, ask an EV owner who has experience.
As this video says, 1st Gen batteries in cars that did not have a battery management system are the ones mentioned when the batteries going bad topic comes up. Current EV's with a battery management system have batteries that are lasting longer than originally thought. Like 200K miles.

And the Tesla packs with the individual cells can be repaired. Tesla does not do that though. They want to sell you a new pack, and that's where the notion that the only way to keep the car going is to spend $$$$ for a new pack. In fact, there are third party companies that can test the pack for bad cells and replace that individual cell and return the pack to service.

So, listen to the guy who makes a living converting cars to electric.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1BBNJDnkTQ

 

[FrankenGlock]

If my engines only lasted 200k miles and let’s say needed a piston or head replaced, I’d be pissed and not buy that engine anymore.

 

[no4mk1t]

If my engines only lasted 200k miles and let’s say needed a piston or head replaced, I’d be pissed and not buy that engine anymore.

Most folks don't keep a car long enough to put 200K miles on it. Most ICE engines are probably on their last legs at that point. If not, they certainly wouldn't make the same power as when new. Still run, sure. Still able to give the owner decent service? Probably. Same for EV. The battery will degrade. But will it still be able to power the car? Sure, just not quite as far as when new.

 

[FrankenGlock]

Most folks don't keep a car long enough to put 200K miles on it. Most ICE engines are probably on their last legs at that point. If not, they certainly wouldn't make the same power as when new. Still run, sure. Still able to give the owner decent service? Probably. Same for EV. The battery will degrade. But will it still be able to power the car? Sure, just not quite as far as when new.

Not sure where you are getting that information but modern engines can go a very long time before needing a rebuild. Diesels can go upwards of a million miles. Even if the engine only lasts 200k miles, you can drop a used one in for a few thousand dollars if you want to keep the car going.

Electric may be the future but it’s still not ready for prime time. I’m betting on fuel cells or hybrids rather than all electric.