Article Link! The Great American EV Fire Sale Is About to Begin

[NavyVette]

Well, the scenario or overnight transformation to EVs was intentionally ridiculous.

But for the record, gas is the draw for the majority of sales in so-called mini-marts. People shop there because they are getting gas. Thus the name, convenience store. Gas sales keep the lights on. Margins are thin at 2 or 3 cents per gallon but they sell a lot of it, which is why the new places have a crazy number of pumps.

Quick charge EV stations could fill the void. Today, 15 minutes of fast charge delivers 100 miles. Just enough time for a Slurpee or maybe take a leak then get the kids to soccer or violin lessons. Who has that kind of time? Everybody. Who knows... maybe the EV 15 minute fill up is a great way for some people to unpucker their butt holes - or maybe I should say stop and smell the fried chicken that's been in the warmer for a month.

There's really no way for anyone to predict how the consumer would behave if gasoline were no longer in demand. The mini mart places would suddenly have a lot of competition from fast food, coffee shops, and drive thru liquor stores (of which I am a big fan).

Also... I'll go out on a limb and say soccer moms driving EVs aren't buying meals at the QuickMart Gas and Go. I don't know anyone who eats at those places. I'm sure the crackheads will still hang out there. At the risk of seeming callous, it looks like food stamps will not buy most of the things sold at mini-marts either.

Personally, I'd not invest any money in those enterprises if tomorrow everyone bought an EV. Uranium futures and battery recyclers would be a wiser bet.

And during that 15 minutes they will just have to stand around because the convenience stores all magically closed? I did not mean to suggest people stop there for dinner - I was suggesting than charging an EV enough to go another 400 would take enough time that they could make a dinner. OR, since convivence stores all closed perhaps a nice chain of Italian restaurants will open with chargers. YUM.

I may be in for an EV after all!

 

[no4mk1t]

Biased. It doesn't factor in routine/periodic maintenance other than oil change on the ICE. not even close.

TCO if you are one of those who keeps his car for several years Many keep their car for ten years and the recommended maintenance below needs to be done more than once. Depends on mileage. These are factory recommended maintenance activities that occur every so many miles on an ICE car - and not an EV. Add this up. Factor in labor and parts.

transmission fluid every 30-60k miles
radiator flush - every 30-50k miles
differential fluid - every 30-60k miles
timing chain/belt - every 80k-120k miles
belts - every 60k-100k miles
hoses - every 60-100k miles
battery - every 3-5 years
air filter - every 10k-12k miles
fuel injector cleaning - every 30k-60k miles
catalytic converter - every 70k-100k miles
muffler - every 40k-80k miles
spark plugs - every 100k miles

Now, some may choose to do none of this but it's what the factory typically says you should. Those who don't, remind me to not buy a used car from them.

I asked Co-Pilot to re-run the calc using your maintenance schedule and typical non-dealership labor. Here is the answer:

Maintenance Cost Estimate (Professional Service)​

Service	Interval	# of Services (200k mi)	Avg Cost per Service	Total Cost
Transmission Fluid Change	Every 45k mi	~4	$200–$300	$800–$1,200
Radiator Flush	Every 40k mi	~5	$130–$200	$650–$1,000
Differential Fluid Change	Every 45k mi	~4	$150–$250	$600–$1,000
Timing Chain/Belt	Every 100k mi	~2	$800–$1,500	$1,600–$3,000
Belts (Accessory)	Every 80k mi	~2	$150–$300	$300–$600
Hoses	Every 80k mi	~2	$150–$250	$300–$500
Battery	Every 4 years	~4	$150–$250	$600–$1,000
Air Filter	Every 11k mi	~18	$30–$60	$540–$1,080

Fuel Injector Cleaning	Every 45k mi	~4	$100–$200	$400–$800
Spark Plugs	Every 100k mi	~2	$150–$300	$300–$600

Total Cost Overview Over 200,000 Miles​

Category	Hyundai Tucson (Gas)	Hyundai Ioniq 5 (EV)
Initial MSRP	$31,025	$43,195
Fuel/Energy Costs	$18,220 (200k ÷ 28 mpg × $2.55)	$9,140 (200k ÷ 3.5 mi/kWh × $0.16)
Oil & Maintenance	$6,590–$11,780 (shop service)	~$2,000 (basic EV service)
Total Ownership Cost	$55,835–$61,025	~$54,335

Break-Even Calculation​

• Upfront Cost Gap: $12,170
• Annual Fuel & Maintenance Savings:
  • Gas: ~$1,822–$2,372/year
  • EV: ~$957/year
  • Annual Savings: ~$865–$1,415
• Break-Even Years:
  • $12,170 ÷ $865 = ~14 years
  • $12,170 ÷ $1,415 = ~8.6 years
• Break-Even Mileage:
  • 14 × 10,000 = 140,000 miles
  • 8.6 × 10,000 = 86,000 miles

Final Verdict​

With shop-based maintenance included:

• The EV breaks even between ~86,000 and ~140,000 miles, or roughly 8.6 to 14 years of driving at 10,000 miles/year.
• The spread depends on how aggressive real-world maintenance costs are for the gas vehicle.

Again, YMMV. If you drive a lot of miles, the gap will be narrower.

Here's the same Break Even Summary with the only change being driving 20K miles/yr.

Break-Even Summary (20,000 miles/year)

Based on:

• $2.55/gal gasoline
• $0.16/kWh home EV charging
• Professional shop maintenance for the gas model

It would take the Hyundai Ioniq 5 EV approximately:

• 43,000 to 70,000 miles
• Or ~2.2 to 3.5 years

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Some random thoughts before I go for a walk and then to the store to re-stock my popcorn...

• I am not against EVs but I am against gov't mandates and gov't subsidies to promote them in ANY form (tax rebate, charging station construction, etc.)
• An EV WOULD fit my current commuting patterns. My shop is 10mi away. About the furthest I travel regularly is to Orlando which is about 100mi round trip.
• I would definitely have a home charger setup and would not even consider charging at any local station/store/etc.
• I would have an older diesel car for highway trips--some of those can have up to 500mi range!
• Heads need to be pulled from asses when optimistically talking about range, especially here in FL. It has been over 90° in the day for the past few months. We all know what running the AC in an EV does to range, do we not?
• Range reduction also applies to heating in the winter in the northern climes.
• Charging stations generally do not accept cash or "anonymous" users. Big Brother tracking your every move...
• If someone runs out of gasoline, they can add a gallon or two and make it to a gas station. If someone runs their EV battery dry, they are going to need a tow...

This is a snip from a charging station location app. You do NOT need to join to view the chargers BTW--just X out the "join" window. The nearest Supercharger is about 5mi away at a fairly new WaWa store. That store is a minute or two off I-4 so I'll give it that. Note the comments about this local non-Tesla charger location.

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PS: end-of-life waste is going to be much greater with EVs. No going to the junkyard to get a battery pack or other item to prolong the life of your EV. Sure, maybe a fender or headlight or something, but EV lifespan is way over-rated.

Battery recycling is going to be a big business. Junkyards, not so much.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

I question the $2.55 for gasoline. Especially over the next ten years.

Using California as a worst case example, gas is an average of $4.77 per gallon today
Illinois $4.07
Washington $4.30

But balancing out the entire country with an average, It's $3.25

That's now. Who believes gasoline gets cheaper over the next decade? I don't. How much will be? No way to predict. Lots of variables. War, taxes, etc.

Electricity in most states is regulated. The price doesn't vary much and isn't subject to what's going on at the NYMEX where crude is traded.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

If someone runs out of gasoline, they can add a gallon or two and make it to a gas station. If someone runs their EV battery dry, they are going to need a tow...

The car starts telling you that it's about to run out of juice well in advance and exactly where to go to get a charge within whoever your remaining range is. If that's not adequate to keep you from getting stranded, I suggest a brain transplant.

Riddle me this: How long does it take to walk a few miles, find a gas can because you don't have one, fill it up, then walk back to the car. Then go back to the gas station and fill up. My guess is it's not 15 minutes. Lets toss in it is in Florida, 100 degrees and 80% humidity . Hope fully the empty gas burner has a defib unit.

In all fairness, my gas burning Gladiator also tells you its time to put some gas in the car. I think most do now. How dumb does someone have to be to run out of gas? Or run out of battery?

 

[Racer88]

Riddle me this: How long does it take to walk a few miles, find a gas can because you don't have one, fill it up, then walk back to the car. Then go back to the gas station and fill up. My guess is it's not 15 minutes. Lets toss in it is in Florida, 100 degrees and 80% humidity . Hope fully the empty gas burner has a defib unit.

The last (and only) time I ran out of gas was the same day I got my 1967 Mercury Cougar (in 1986) and went on a date. I was low on gas, but I didn't want to stop while still on the date. I took her home and got on my way. I didn't make it to a gas station. So, I started walking (after midnight)... and found a gas station that was.... CLOSED! In desperation I went around the back of the station just to see what I could find. I found a lawnmower AND a gas can! And it had some gas in it! Just sitting there out in the open! Sooooooo.... I took it and made it home.

Other than that... I've never run out of gas. And again... I can get off virtually ANY exit on ANY highway in the USA and find at least 2 - 4 gas stations, each with a dozen or more pumps with no waiting for a pump. Gas up in THREE MINUTES and be on my way for another 400 - 500 miles. I don't have to consult a computerized map to see where the gas stations are and plan my route accordingly (like you do with scarce chargers). AND I don't have to WAIT for a charger, assuming half are out of order. AND I don't have to WAIT for 20+ minutes just to get JUST 100 miles worth of charge... much longer if I want a max charge for max range. I don't care if it's 15 minutes or 60 minutes or longer. I have ZERO interest in hanging around for any amount of time. I'd rather stick needles in my eye than wait TO charge and wait FOR a charge.

Driving an EV and driving an ICE car are two entirely different animals. And just me.... personally... I'll never be interested in the EV "experience." That's just me. For those who are cool with it.... enjoy in good health.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

And during that 15 minutes they will just have to stand around because the convenience stores all magically closed? I did not mean to suggest people stop there for dinner - I was suggesting than charging an EV enough to go another 400 would take enough time that they could make a dinner. OR, since convivence stores all closed perhaps a nice chain of Italian restaurants will open with chargers. YUM.

I may be in for an EV after all!

Let's think about this for a second. Since everyones panties are in a wad about charging times.

It takes 3-5 minutes to fill up a 20 gallon tank. We all know that will take you between 200 and 300 miles or so depending on the vehicle.

It's a fact the Tesla supercharger can deliver 200 miles of range in 15 minutes., So about ten minutes longer than a conventional fill up. Anyone who doesn't have ten minutes ... maybe a little valium would help. And maybe it could eliminate pissing into a bottle while you are driving. Also... maybe clean the bugs off your windshield.

If there's no supercharger nearby, then you only get 100 miles from a 15 minute charge. Tell me... who the fuck drives 100 miles in the EV they own and left home without charging? Only the terminally stupid. Nobody here is that dumb. This is a nothingburger.

I'll wait for the .. "Oh yea? Then what happens when a dinosaur attacks your Tesla , Mr Wizard?" and the eye roll.

 

[Racer88]

We all know that will take you between 200 and 300 miles or so depending on the vehicle.

Ummm.... no. Even my gas-guzzler 260HP turbo 4000-lb Outback SUV... I get over 400 miles on a fill. And that's mixed driving. It averages 22 mpg (mixed driving), which is actually quite piss-poor by today's ICE efficiency standards. 200-300 miles?? LOL! Seriously wrong.

With pure highway driving, I get 25 mpg (and that's averaging 80 - 84 mph). And that "sucks" compared to many of today's cars. My wife's car gets more like 35 mpg. So closer to 600 miles of range on the highway. And yeah... we don't have to get nervous about running through the full tank, since we can get off any exit and find a gas station. Almost any exit in the entire country.

Suggesting we need "valium" because we would rather not hang out at a gas station... well... hey, we all have our proclivities, eh? On road trips, we stop for sit-down restaurants to eat. For a bathroom break, we might stop at a "rest stop" to stretch our legs and drain the lizard. But gas stations?? As little time as possible.

 

[no4mk1t]

I question the $2.55 for gasoline. Especially over the next ten years.

Using California as a worst case example, gas is an average of $4.77 per gallon today
Illinois $4.07
Washington $4.30

But balancing out the entire country with an average, It's $3.25

That's now. Who believes gasoline gets cheaper over the next decade? I don't. How much will be? No way to predict. Lots of variables. War, taxes, etc.

Electricity in most states is regulated. The price doesn't vary much and isn't subject to what's going on at the NYMEX where crude is traded.

That is the price of gas (correction) yesterday where I live. It goes up and down every week. It was $2.89 last week.

I based the pricing on what it costs today, for me, where I live. Why would I want to base an estimate of what it would cost for me at my location on what things cost in Kommiefornia?
Who knows what it will cost 5-10 years from now. Same for an oil change at Jiffy lube.

 

[NavyVette]

Let's think about this for a second. Since everyones panties are in a wad about charging times.

It takes 3-5 minutes to fill up a 20 gallon tank. We all know that will take you between 200 and 300 miles or so depending on the vehicle.

It's a fact the Tesla supercharger can deliver 200 miles of range in 15 minutes., So about ten minutes longer than a conventional fill up. Anyone who doesn't have ten minutes ... maybe a little valium would help. And maybe it could eliminate pissing into a bottle while you are driving. Also... maybe clean the bugs off your windshield.

If there's no supercharger nearby, then you only get 100 miles from a 15 minute charge. Tell me... who the fuck drives 100 miles in the EV they own and left home without charging? Only the terminally stupid. Nobody here is that dumb. This is a nothingburger.

I'll wait for the .. "Oh yea? Then what happens when a dinosaur attacks your Tesla , Mr Wizard?" and the eye roll.

Wow, what horrible gas mileage are you getting? I get 16 in my truck around town - I can go 380 on my 24 gallons easy.

On the highway I get 19 going 85 or 90.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Wow, what horrible gas mileage are you getting? I get 16 in my truck around town - I can go 380 on my 24 gallons easy.

On the highway I get 19 going 85 or 90.

Mine... 17 mpg. Sometimes less because I do a lot of driving on unpaved roads in 4WD. 20 gallon tank. My Tundra V8 was 14-15 mpg. 17 on the highway.

 

[no4mk1t]

We just went out to eat and this is the price today at the convenience store a mile from the house.

Again, the figures used in my projection are what it cost today where I live. I don't live in Kommiefornia and never will. Why would I base an estimate on what the Left Coast does?

All of you are free to repeat my estimate using the pricing where you live.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

$2.90 near me and it's rural NC.

I was visiting my brother in PA a month ago and regular was $3.35. Mid-grade $3.90.

 

[no4mk1t]

The price you pay at the pump is determined mostly by the state tax you pay. The Federal tax is the same for all states. Other than that, the distance the fuel must be transported to your area is also a factor.

Gasoline Taxes by State (Federal + State Combined)​

State	State Tax (¢/gal)	Federal Tax (¢/gal)	Total Tax (¢/gal)
California	68.1	18.4	86.5
Illinois	66.5	18.4	84.9
Pennsylvania	58.7	18.4	77.1
Washington	52.8	18.4	71.2
Indiana	51.7	18.4	70.1
Michigan	48.0	18.4	66.4
Maryland	47.2	18.4	65.6
New Jersey	42.4	18.4	60.8
North Carolina	40.7	18.4	59.1
Oregon	40.0	18.4	58.4
Florida	38.6	18.4	57.0
Ohio	38.5	18.4	56.9
Rhode Island	38.1	18.4	56.5
Utah	37.2	18.4	55.6
Virginia	39.1	18.4	57.5
West Virginia	35.7	18.4	54.1
Georgia	33.1	18.4	51.5
Vermont	32.6	18.4	51.0
Wisconsin	32.9	18.4	51.3
Minnesota	28.6	18.4	47.0
South Carolina	28.8	18.4	47.2
Iowa	30.0	18.4	48.4
Maine	31.4	18.4	49.8
Massachusetts	27.4	18.4	45.8
Connecticut	25.0	18.4	43.4
Missouri	24.5	18.4	42.9
Arkansas	25.0	18.4	43.4
Kansas	25.0	18.4	43.4
Colorado	29.2	18.4	47.6
Nebraska	30.0	18.4	48.4
Nevada	23.8	18.4	42.2
New Hampshire	23.8	18.4	42.2
Delaware	23.0	18.4	41.4
North Dakota	23.0	18.4	41.4
Wyoming	24.0	18.4	42.4
Kentucky	30.1	18.4	48.5
Tennessee	27.4	18.4	45.8
South Dakota	30.0	18.4	48.4
Texas	20.0	18.4	38.4
Oklahoma	20.0	18.4	38.4
Louisiana	20.9	18.4	39.3
New Mexico	18.9	18.4	37.3
Arizona	19.0	18.4	37.4
Mississippi	18.4	18.4	36.8
Hawaii	18.5	18.4	36.9
Alaska	8.95	18.4	27.35

Federal gasoline tax is 18.4¢/gal nationwide and hasn’t changed since 19932.

 

[no4mk1t]

I just happen to be located near one of the Distibution points in the Colonial pipeline. This is the pipeline that fuel flows through from the Gulf Coast refineries up the Eastern Seaboard to Distribution points in each state. This means transportation costs to the local gas station are lower than for those farther away.

 

[Racer88]

The price you pay at the pump is determined mostly by the state tax you pay. The Federal tax is the same for all states. Other than that, the distance the fuel must be transported to your area is also a factor.

Gasoline Taxes by State (Federal + State Combined)​

State	State Tax (¢/gal)	Federal Tax (¢/gal)	Total Tax (¢/gal)
California	68.1	18.4	86.5
Illinois	66.5	18.4	84.9
Pennsylvania	58.7	18.4	77.1
Washington	52.8	18.4	71.2
Indiana	51.7	18.4	70.1
Michigan	48.0	18.4	66.4
Maryland	47.2	18.4	65.6
New Jersey	42.4	18.4	60.8
North Carolina	40.7	18.4	59.1
Oregon	40.0	18.4	58.4
Florida	38.6	18.4	57.0
Ohio	38.5	18.4	56.9
Rhode Island	38.1	18.4	56.5
Utah	37.2	18.4	55.6
Virginia	39.1	18.4	57.5
West Virginia	35.7	18.4	54.1
Georgia	33.1	18.4	51.5
Vermont	32.6	18.4	51.0
Wisconsin	32.9	18.4	51.3
Minnesota	28.6	18.4	47.0
South Carolina	28.8	18.4	47.2
Iowa	30.0	18.4	48.4
Maine	31.4	18.4	49.8
Massachusetts	27.4	18.4	45.8
Connecticut	25.0	18.4	43.4
Missouri	24.5	18.4	42.9
Arkansas	25.0	18.4	43.4
Kansas	25.0	18.4	43.4
Colorado	29.2	18.4	47.6
Nebraska	30.0	18.4	48.4
Nevada	23.8	18.4	42.2
New Hampshire	23.8	18.4	42.2
Delaware	23.0	18.4	41.4
North Dakota	23.0	18.4	41.4
Wyoming	24.0	18.4	42.4
Kentucky	30.1	18.4	48.5
Tennessee	27.4	18.4	45.8
South Dakota	30.0	18.4	48.4
Texas	20.0	18.4	38.4
Oklahoma	20.0	18.4	38.4
Louisiana	20.9	18.4	39.3
New Mexico	18.9	18.4	37.3
Arizona	19.0	18.4	37.4
Mississippi	18.4	18.4	36.8
Hawaii	18.5	18.4	36.9
Alaska	8.95	18.4	27.35

Plus some have a local / county tax on top of the state tax. Yep. We do.

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Friends and fam in IL said as soon as gas prices dropped, the state added more tax. I see on the list IL is near the top. Insane. My sister lived there. I could never figure out why. It's like California except the weather sucks.

Eight states have started taxing electric power used to charge vehicles. At the charger stations that charge. Best to charge at home.

Maybe some people will become gasshiners. Make their own. In stills out in the woods. All you need is crude oil.

 

[Racer88]

Eight states have started taxing electric power used to charge vehicles. At the charger stations that charge. Best to charge at home.

Of course they have and will. They're not getting gas taxes from those cars. Gotta replace the revenue somehow, eh?

 

[Bongo Lewi]

Of course they have and will. They're not getting gas taxes from those cars. Gotta replace the revenue somehow, eh?

Glad I have solar panels. They are soon going to be even more useful.

 

[Racer88]

Glad I have solar panels. They are soon going to be even more useful.

They'll find a way to tax that, too!