Polymer80 may survive the court battle but not their own reputation....

[brian]

Never say never, but I dont think there are many low IQ doofuses buying 3D printers and making their own guns or whatever else with them

Maybe not 3D printing, but perusing posts on Reddit under the P80 related subs, there do seem to be quite a few "doofuses" building their own not just from the channels that have been cut by a beaver they post pics of but the lack of safety demonstrated not to mention the "gray area" subs the participate in like drug related. Certainly can't quantify a number scientifically from it though.

 

[Racer88]

In terms of total gun owners, I'd bet the percentage of skilled builders is in the single digits percentage-wise

Ah, in the context of total gun owners! Oh, I bet that it's in the tenths of a one percent. Low tenths.

Never say never, but I dont think there are many low IQ doofuses buying 3D printers and making their own guns or whatever else with them.

To borrow from George Bush... I think you "misunderestimate" the doofuses!

 

[Racer88]

but perusing posts on Reddit under the P80 related subs, there do seem to be quite a few "doofuses" building their own not just from the channels that have been cut by a beaver they post pics of but the lack of safety demonstrated not to mention the "gray area" subs the participate in like drug related. Certainly can't quantify a number scientifically from it though.

Oh, without a doubt. And by all appearances, many of them have never owned a single gun before embarking on building a P80.

 

[James Moore]

Reading what people said about it, my informal post mortem on the 76% frame strategy is that it was not successful. It turned off customers. Not just to Polymer 80 but the idea of building your own gun.

It is definitely the season for armchair quarterbacking, and not knowing the difference between a Strategy and a Tactic makes it that much easier for critics.
The 76% was never a strategy. It was a tactic taken during the ongoing court battle to supply their customers with a product that would meet the ATF's definition of a piece of plastic.

True, it wasn't a big hit, especially with those that could barely complete an 80%. Plus it continues to be criticized by those believe that it was a "strategy".
I am well aware that Polymer80 has many customer service issues, but I am also aware that they are among the very few that are fighting this battle in the courts rather than fighting on the keyboard.

Even though I have over a dozen 80% frames in my closet, I purchased a 76%. I never finished it and tbh, I'm not sure that I could. I also continue to purchase other products from them, because I understand that if they go under, that is a big weapon lost to the pro 2A side.

It's easy to be an armchair quarterback, but at least in football the armchair quarterback always tells us the play he would have called.

If not the 76%, what play would you call?

 

[James Moore]

Never say never, but I dont think there are many low IQ doofuses buying 3D printers and making their own guns or whatever else with them.

The 1st part is false, but the 2nd is definitely true.
I am a member of several printing groups, not just 2A printing and you would be surprised at how many low IQ doofuses run out and buy a printer thinking they're going to start churning out their own personal Arsenal.

I'm not sure of how to grade the skill level, but I know that completing an 80% firearm is much easier than printing one.

 

[Knack]

The 1st part is false, but the 2nd is definitely true.
I am a member of several printing groups, not just 2A printing and you would be surprised at how many low IQ doofuses run out and buy a printer thinking they're going to start churning out their own personal Arsenal.

I'm not sure of how to grade the skill level, but I know that completing an 80% firearm is much easier than printing one.

It's true any moron with the money can buy a 3d printer. Anything for that matter. Successfully making something with one is another thing all together.

 

[Racer88]

It's true any moron with the money can buy a P80 frame. Anything for that matter. Successfully making something with one is another thing all together.

Also true. All we have to do is look around, especially on Reddit.

 

[Knack]

It is definitely the season for armchair quarterbacking, and not knowing the difference between a Strategy and a Tactic makes it that much easier for critics.
The 76% was never a strategy. It was a tactic taken during the ongoing court battle to supply their customers with a product that would meet the ATF's definition of a piece of plastic.

True, it wasn't a big hit, especially with those that could barely complete an 80%. Plus it continues to be criticized by those believe that it was a "strategy".
I am well aware that Polymer80 has many customer service issues, but I am also aware that they are among the very few that are fighting this battle in the courts rather than fighting on the keyboard.

Even though I have over a dozen 80% frames in my closet, I purchased a 76%. I never finished it and tbh, I'm not sure that I could. I also continue to purchase other products from them, because I understand that if they go under, that is a big weapon lost to the pro 2A side.

It's easy to be an armchair quarterback, but at least in football the armchair quarterback always tells us the play he would have called.

If not the 76%, what play would you call?

Ah, in the context of total gun owners! Oh, I bet that it's in the tenths of a one percent. Low tenths.


To borrow from George Bush... I think you "misunderestimate" the doofuses!

On the first part, exactly my point.

I also have a theory that a lot of people on Reddit and some other forums as well are bullshit merchants with a satchel full of samples. Gun topics are no exception. They talk about doing things but aren't really doing it. Boards/forums are a pastime for a lot of people. Entertainment. Or sometimes a compulsion, something like catfishing. Online personas are often completely fake. Social media has amplified this weird aspect of human behavior. Shrinks are studying this phenomenon and it makes for interesting reading. In simple terms, it's deception. Nothing new about that. but the reasons people do it is what makes it genuinely interesting. There are parallels to Munchhausen's Syndrome.

You have to take what you read online with grain of salt. Nothing is a common or as popular as people often suggest.

Speaking of exaggeration, one 80% zealot on Reddit said that 1 million 80% frames are sold annually. So at about $100 bucks a pop (average), it's a $100,000,000 dollar business? Not to mention the frame parts which roughly would be another hundred million. How about slides and barrels? That would add another $200-300 million. Maybe more. So the 80% biz in toto is over half billion dollar business annually? Bullshit.

Let's just say for a moment this is true. Anybody think the big gunmakers would not be concerned and trying to crush this 80% business?

The truth: Polymer 80 is estimated to have 6.1 million in sales annually and is identified as the leader in the market with a 90% market share.

 

[Knack]

It is definitely the season for armchair quarterbacking, and not knowing the difference between a Strategy and a Tactic makes it that much easier for critics.
The 76% was never a strategy. It was a tactic taken during the ongoing court battle to supply their customers with a product that would meet the ATF's definition of a piece of plastic.

True, it wasn't a big hit, especially with those that could barely complete an 80%. Plus it continues to be criticized by those believe that it was a "strategy".
I am well aware that Polymer80 has many customer service issues, but I am also aware that they are among the very few that are fighting this battle in the courts rather than fighting on the keyboard.

Even though I have over a dozen 80% frames in my closet, I purchased a 76%. I never finished it and tbh, I'm not sure that I could. I also continue to purchase other products from them, because I understand that if they go under, that is a big weapon lost to the pro 2A side.

It's easy to be an armchair quarterback, but at least in football the armchair quarterback always tells us the play he would have called.

If not the 76%, what play would you call?

Hmm... Maybe go back and read my post again. I said very specifically what I would have done instead of 76%. When you sit in the Big Chair, you do whatever is necessary to keep the company afloat. Betting on the good will of customers buying something that sucks is plainly stupid. That's a losing strategy. Almost as dumb as making a trans celebrity the focal point of a marketing campaign for cheap beer.

 

[bkbrno]

S&W annual sales are about $500M this year, based on what they publish in their investor section. P80 sales are a rounding error to them if the $6M in sales is correct.

I've seen companies with a brilliant, one of a kind product and no competition go under because they were poorly managed. I've seen companies compete in a saturated market with a common as toilet paper product and make billions because of superior management. Based on my two direct transactions with P80, I'll go with the former.

Luckily, there have been companies willing to put up with P80's buffoonery, stand between P80 an the end user, and get their product to us with the least pain possible.

 

[James Moore]

Hmm... Maybe go back and read my post again. I said very specifically what I would have done instead of 76%.

Oh, you mean the BS marketing plan about how awesome it would be to build your own serialized firearm?

I didn't think you were serious about that

I suppose if they didn't understand their customers, nor realize there are probably thousands of other outlets for that same thing.
Being new to the hobby, you probably don't know that you can buy serialized frames for many firearms, along with custom slides, triggers, grips, barrels, etc.,etc..

Polymer80 does understand it's customer base. It knows that while most of us enjoy building our own, the main draw is being under the radar.
So, in an attempt to keep their customers happy, they came out with a product that while a PITA and beyond the capabilities of many, still gave many what they wanted.
You on the other hand suggest that they say to hell with our customer base, to hell with the people who have supported us and made us basically the only 80% handgun company still standing, screw them, let's start putting out a product they can get anywhere else. That sounds like a great strategy.

 

[Peepsight]

Hardly a day goes by where a few of these don't turn up in schools and drug stops locally. I could have seen myself being a 14yr old Lord of War if these things were available!!! At 15 I had made a pair of 0% Mac10's in shop class. I was fitting and assembling when the teacher realized what I was doing!!! After a year of essentially being banned they are starting to slow down to a few times a week. I'm an absolute believer in that if you're legal to own it you're legal to make it for personal use. But how do you keep them away from kids and criminals? We wouldn't need laws if people could act like they had any sense.

BS

 

[brian]

On the first part, exactly my point.

I also have a theory that a lot of people on Reddit and some other forums as well are bullshit merchants with a satchel full of samples. Gun topics are no exception. They talk about doing things but aren't really doing it. Boards/forums are a pastime for a lot of people. Entertainment. Or sometimes a compulsion, something like catfishing. Online personas are often completely fake. Social media has amplified this weird aspect of human behavior. Shrinks are studying this phenomenon and it makes for interesting reading. In simple terms, it's deception. Nothing new about that. but the reasons people do it is what makes it genuinely interesting. There are parallels to Munchhausen's Syndrome.

You have to take what you read online with grain of salt. Nothing is a common or as popular as people often suggest.

Speaking of exaggeration, one 80% zealot on Reddit said that 1 million 80% frames are sold annually. So at about $100 bucks a pop (average), it's a $100,000,000 dollar business? Not to mention the frame parts which roughly would be another hundred million. How about slides and barrels? That would add another $200-300 million. Maybe more. So the 80% biz in toto is over half billion dollar business annually? Bullshit.

Let's just say for a moment this is true. Anybody think the big gunmakers would not be concerned and trying to crush this 80% business?

The truth: Polymer 80 is estimated to have 6.1 million in sales annually and is identified as the leader in the market with a 90% market share.

I've seen frames for $50 and sometimes less, so while I can accept that they aren't selling a $100 million worth per year if we factor in an accurate wholesale cost (which is a guess for us) of even $30 per frame then you need to guess at what P80 sales. I call the $6million sales/annually BS - P80 settled a suit brought by LA last year for $5M. They have to be making more than that and worth more than that. If they had less than $6M in assets, I doubt they'd settle - I'd figure the strategy would be to keep litigating and then just declare bankruptcy.

As far as 80% frames go, don't overlook the 80% AR and 1911s too along with all the uppers & parts which go with them. Maybe not half a billion but I'd argue it is well above millions overall. As far as crushing them - well, Glock may not like the competition for the lower but with the number of Gen3 Glock uppers and build kits out there not to mention the advocacy of using Glock OEM parts, I'd say Glock is cashing in nicely on the 80% wave.

https://www.courthousenews.com/👻gun-maker-agrees-to-pay-la-5-million-and-abide-by-new-regulations/

 

[Knack]

I've seen frames for $50 and sometimes less, so while I can accept that they aren't selling a $100 million worth per year if we factor in an accurate wholesale cost (which is a guess for us) of even $30 per frame then you need to guess at what P80 sales. I call the $6million sales/annually BS - P80 settled a suit brought by LA last year for $5M. They have to be making more than that and worth more than that. If they had less than $6M in assets, I doubt they'd settle - I'd figure the strategy would be to keep litigating and then just declare bankruptcy.

As far as 80% frames go, don't overlook the 80% AR and 1911s too along with all the uppers & parts which go with them. Maybe not half a billion but I'd argue it is well above millions overall. As far as crushing them - well, Glock may not like the competition for the lower but with the number of Gen3 Glock uppers and build kits out there not to mention the advocacy of using Glock OEM parts, I'd say Glock is cashing in nicely on the 80% wave.

https://www.courthousenews.com/👻gun-maker-agrees-to-pay-la-5-million-and-abide-by-new-regulations/

Revenue and assets are not the same thing. It’s also possible they are insured. Private Investors, if they have any, would demand they were. Even so, a 5m lawsuit hurts. Premiums would skyrocket. I’d be shocked if they were not insured. All manufacturers get sued sooner or later.

Revenue is total sales before costs. What their recurring costs, operating expenses, or COGS are is unknown since they are privately owned. Point is, they are small potatoes. After expenses, perhaps a couple million a year in profit if they dont have a lot of debt. If they are selling more than 30, maybe 40,000 frames and parts kits a year I'd be surprised. That revenue number is all products, not just pistol frames. Their revenue numbers suggest something in that ballpark. That also hints that as the market leader by a huge margin, everybody else is a fraction of their size in terms of revenue, goods sold. Even smaller potatoes.

The moral of the story is, they may or may not be able to continue selling what they have been selling. So they either adapt or die. I don't have a lot of confidence in the unserialized, 80% business remaining the same as it was. I'm not advocating for that. Just saying it's possible. Customer opinions are fine, but when it's your business you don't have the luxury of wishing things go your way. Businesses don't die of natural causes very often. They get killed.

 

[Knack]

Oh, you mean the BS marketing plan about how awesome it would be to build your own serialized firearm?

I didn't think you were serious about that

I suppose if they didn't understand their customers, nor realize there are probably thousands of other outlets for that same thing.
Being new to the hobby, you probably don't know that you can buy serialized frames for many firearms, along with custom slides, triggers, grips, barrels, etc.,etc..

Polymer80 does understand it's customer base. It knows that while most of us enjoy building our own, the main draw is being under the radar.
So, in an attempt to keep their customers happy, they came out with a product that while a PITA and beyond the capabilities of many, still gave many what they wanted.
You on the other hand suggest that they say to hell with our customer base, to hell with the people who have supported us and made us basically the only 80% handgun company still standing, screw them, let's start putting out a product they can get anywhere else. That sounds like a great strategy.

I’d not start a business if I were you. Just sayin.

 

[Racer88]

Polymer80 does understand it's customer base. It knows that while most of us enjoy building our own, the main draw is being under the radar.

I agree... though "under the radar" has negative / surreptitious / fringe connotations, IMO. I think of it more as an "in your face" privately made firearm. I built it because it's my Constitutional Right. I enjoy building them even more because it pisses off liberals.

Let's face it... if we wanted to be "secret" or "under the radar" about it, we wouldn't be here on the interwebz forums, eh?

But, YES... Polymer80 knows that the vast majority of its target market / customer base is not interested in building a serialized 100% frame. I built one for my EDC, and almost everyone who commented said they would not go through the "trouble" of building a serialized frame. The most common comment was essentially, "What's the point?"

 

[James Moore]

I’d not start a business if I were you. Just sayin.

Thankfully I didn't have anyone with your vast knowledge of business to advise me 25 years ago or I'd probably still be working for someone else.

 

[Knack]

I agree... though "under the radar" has negative / surreptitious / fringe connotations, IMO. I think of it more as an "in your face" privately made firearm. I built it because it's my Constitutional Right. I enjoy building them even more because it pisses off liberals.

Let's face it... if we wanted to be "secret" or "under the radar" about it, we wouldn't be here on the interwebz forums, eh?

But, YES... Polymer80 knows that the vast majority of its target market / customer base is not interested in building a serialized 100% frame. I built one for my EDC, and almost everyone who commented said they would not go through the "trouble" of building a serialized frame. The most common comment was essentially, "What's the point?"

I don't want to deflect from the main topic, which I agree with. But Palmetto Armory seems to be doing well selling clone Glock parts and Glock clones. ARs and AR parts as well. Their somewhat new Micro Dagger complete gun and frames sell out in an hour. Every day. I've been watching it out of curiosity for two months. Somebody is buying those frames. How many are they making/selling? No idea. Seems like a lot though. There's a few people here who are buying Dagger frames and putting together their own customized handgun.

I dont buy the argument that nobody will "build" a gun on a serialized frame. However, I openly admit that I also have questioned the logic in doing this. My main objection is the cost of doing that doesn't pass my sniff test.

 

[Knack]

Thankfully I didn't have anyone with your vast knowledge of business to advise me 25 years ago or I'd probably still be working for someone else.

I’ll be looking for your nomination as manufacturer of the year and listed in the Fortune 500.

Your commercial success aside, P80 is probably dead meat. Maybe you could advise them?

I’ll be happy to compare resumes and credentials if you want to go there.

 

[James Moore]

I’ll be looking for your nomination as manufacturer of the year and listed in the Fortune 500.

Your commercial success aside, P80 is probably dead meat. Maybe you could advise them?

I’ll be happy to compare resumes and credentials if you want to go there.

No need, I am sure yours is bigger than mine.